Of Crochet and Confirmation Bias
(March 2016)
I have long considered myself to be a non-superstitious person, though being a woman of faith (Christian) some might say I am given to believing in things I cannot see but that is another story.
Since joining the midwifery profession however I have found myself drawn into ‘playing along with’ if you like, the common superstitions of life as a midwife. I am not just talking about that sinking feeling you get when you see on the calendar that it is a full moon AND a high tide on the night you are booked for a night shift on an already busy obstetric ward.
I love to crochet and will take any small opportunity to whip my hook, ball and current project out of my bag. The first time I did this as a qualified midwife though, one of my colleagues mock gasped and asked if I was trying to jinx them all? I was understandably confused and she went onto explain that if you brought something to do such as knitting or crochet then you consign us all to a manic shift with barely a moment to draw breath or a brew never mind conquer a new granny square pattern. I laughed uncertainly and went back to my knots but a seed was planted and a few days later I was popping my crochet bag into my night shift bag and paused. I actually stood there with the bag half in, half out, and wondered if my bringing a ball of wool and crochet hook to work would cause women to spontaneously labour.
Needless to say, I packed my wool and went to work.
Two nights ago I worked a crazy night shift and while gulping down a lukewarm mug of tea, carelessly remarked to my fellow midwife, equally run off her feet but whom I knew is as keen a crocheter as myself, that of course it was all my fault because I packed my crochet. She surprised me by telling me that she leaves her crochet in her bag all the time because then the craziness can’t be her fault and she occasionally gets to work on her project. We laughed and went back to work but again it caused me to think.
My friend it seemed had found the ultimate solution for my crochet dilemma in the likely diagnosis of confirmation bias. This means that we are more likely to notice an apparent correlation when we are looking for it. So in the case of my crazy crochet-free night I am far more likely to make the link that crochet = busy night, than when I do get the opportunity to do it, I am less likely to remember those times apparently and will discount busy times when I don’t happen to have my project bag on me.
You may be relieved to hear that I have resumed my superstition free life and am not a crazy person with an unreasonable amount of belief in the power of a ball of 4-ply (though it’s power for good is not under dispute I assure you) however it is interesting to think about the power of confirmation bias. That Band 7 who always seems to carry the proverbial “Poo Stick”? What negative expectations are we attending work with? That’s to unpick on another day perhaps but from now on, regardless of my expectations of my shift I am looking at my crochet hook in a positive viewpoint and focusing on the positive power it brings. The power to sit on my hands, to self care, to create. That’s my bias.
Since joining the midwifery profession however I have found myself drawn into ‘playing along with’ if you like, the common superstitions of life as a midwife. I am not just talking about that sinking feeling you get when you see on the calendar that it is a full moon AND a high tide on the night you are booked for a night shift on an already busy obstetric ward.
I love to crochet and will take any small opportunity to whip my hook, ball and current project out of my bag. The first time I did this as a qualified midwife though, one of my colleagues mock gasped and asked if I was trying to jinx them all? I was understandably confused and she went onto explain that if you brought something to do such as knitting or crochet then you consign us all to a manic shift with barely a moment to draw breath or a brew never mind conquer a new granny square pattern. I laughed uncertainly and went back to my knots but a seed was planted and a few days later I was popping my crochet bag into my night shift bag and paused. I actually stood there with the bag half in, half out, and wondered if my bringing a ball of wool and crochet hook to work would cause women to spontaneously labour.
Link –
Call the Crocheted Chummy!Needless to say, I packed my wool and went to work.
Two nights ago I worked a crazy night shift and while gulping down a lukewarm mug of tea, carelessly remarked to my fellow midwife, equally run off her feet but whom I knew is as keen a crocheter as myself, that of course it was all my fault because I packed my crochet. She surprised me by telling me that she leaves her crochet in her bag all the time because then the craziness can’t be her fault and she occasionally gets to work on her project. We laughed and went back to work but again it caused me to think.
My friend it seemed had found the ultimate solution for my crochet dilemma in the likely diagnosis of confirmation bias. This means that we are more likely to notice an apparent correlation when we are looking for it. So in the case of my crazy crochet-free night I am far more likely to make the link that crochet = busy night, than when I do get the opportunity to do it, I am less likely to remember those times apparently and will discount busy times when I don’t happen to have my project bag on me.
You may be relieved to hear that I have resumed my superstition free life and am not a crazy person with an unreasonable amount of belief in the power of a ball of 4-ply (though it’s power for good is not under dispute I assure you) however it is interesting to think about the power of confirmation bias. That Band 7 who always seems to carry the proverbial “Poo Stick”? What negative expectations are we attending work with? That’s to unpick on another day perhaps but from now on, regardless of my expectations of my shift I am looking at my crochet hook in a positive viewpoint and focusing on the positive power it brings. The power to sit on my hands, to self care, to create. That’s my bias.
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